Trump’s mass deportation plan would be disastrous for economy, experts say

Former President Donald Trump has made mass deportations one of the touchstones of his 2024 campaign. Photo from the Immigrant Law Center of Minnesota (Ethnic Media Services)

Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s proposal to deport at least 15 million migrants from the US would be disastrous for the American economy, said experts at a news briefing Sept. 12.

Trump has made mass deportations one of the touchstones of his 2024 campaign. He reiterated the threat Sept. 10 evening at the Presidential debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

He evaded a question from ABC News anchor David Muir as to how he would carry out the deportations, but did answer that the number of migrants facing removal could be as high as 21 million. On the campaign trail, the former president has said he would use the National Guard, the US military, and local law enforcement to carry out the deportations.

Roughly 22 percent of American farm-workers are undocumented migrants, while 15 percent of construction workers and 8 percent of care workers are also undocumented.

Lost sales revenue

The US would lose about $100 billion in federal and state tax revenues, said Dr. Robert Lynch, co-author of “The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportation.” Inflation would rise by about 3 percent he predicted at the news briefing, organized by America’s Voice.

“On the demand side effect, we have 8 million undocumented workers who spend hundreds of millions of dollars in the US. Deport them, and you lose that revenue,” said Lynch, professor emeritus at the University of Washington.

“The economy of America shrinks,” said Lynch, noting also that low-skilled white men who work in blue collar jobs would be hardest hit. Wages go down when the economy shrinks, as small businesses shutter or cut down their labor force due to revenue loss, he explained.

The notion that undocumented immigrants are stealing jobs from American workers is a false narrative, said Lynch. “Americans are not going to go out in the blazing heat to pick cotton or peanuts,” he said. “Undocumented immigrants take jobs that American workers will not do.”

‘Pet-eating Haitians’

At the news briefing, several speakers noted that Trump has demonized migrants to appeal to his ‘Make America Great Again’ base. But there is scant evidence of such appeal to voters outside the base. Zachary Mueller, research director at America’s Voice, said Republicans have spent $458 million in television ads and a similar amount on social media ads to promote anti-immigrant messaging. “But it has not delivered at the ballot box.”

The most discussed moment of the debate was when Trump alleged that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were capturing pets and eating them. City officials have said there is no evidence of such claims.

“Trump has dehumanized a group of people, and cast them as an existential threat,” said Mueller. “He is engaging in racist theory, and it is clear there are going to be consequences.”

SAVE Act

Earlier that morning, Springfield City Hall received a bomb threat, which forced all workers there to evacuate. Mayor Rob Rue said the perpetrators had “used hateful language towards immigrants and Haitians in our community.”

The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act — SAVE —  requires voters to provide documentary proof of citizenship at the time of registration. The pending legislation, known as a continuing resolution, has been attached to the budget bill. House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he will not allow the budget bill to pass without the SAVE Act also being passed, even if it means a government shutdown, reported the Associated Press.

False narratives

Jonah Minkoff-Zern, co-director of the Public Citizen’s Democracy Campaign, said the statements made in the SAVE Act are not verified by facts. Incidents of non-citizen voting are extremely rare.

“People would not risk their livelihoods and their families to illegally cast a vote,” said Minkoff-Zern. “Using this blatantly false narrative, Trump is setting the tone to disrupt the election if it doesn’t go his way.” (Ethnic Media Services)