Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says ChatGPT won’t revolutionize US economy in next decade
According to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, ChatGPT and other similar language models are unlikely to cause significant transformation in the US economy over the next ten years.
In a recent op-ed published in the New York Times, Krugman stated, “Such models should not have a major impact on economic projections for next year, and their influence on economic projections for the next decade is also likely to be limited.”
Krugman believes that ChatGPT and its successors may be more relevant to the economic story of the 2030s rather than the next few years. Despite the buzz around ChatGPT and other AI tools, their impact on the economy is unlikely to be immediate.
However, these technologies’ attention has renewed investor interest in the AI sector. This led to a surge in stocks of companies such as Nvidia, which have risen by about 83% since the beginning of 2023.
The impressive capabilities of ChatGPT, from dispensing dating tips to offering investment advice, have garnered significant attention.
— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDailyio) April 4, 2023
ChatGPT and its alarming Effects on US Economy
However, The Federal Trade Commission has expressed concerns. Fed worries that the technology may contribute to online bias, discrimination, and other consumer-related harms.
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Paul Krugman, a renowned economist, has previously discussed the potential implications of ChatGPT. He noted that it might be capable of performing tasks such as reporting and writing more efficiently than humans.
In his latest column, Krugman highlighted that large language models like ChatGPT might enhance productivity. But they may also devalue the skills of certain workers.
Krugman questioned the extent and speed at which these effects will manifest. He draws parallels with the historical lag between the rise in computing power during the mid-1900s and its eventual impact on labor productivity.
Krugman debunked arguments from people. He claimed that AI could significantly boost economic growth due to a surge in tax revenue.
He also said that it could boost probable fiscal crisis causing drastic cuts to Medicare and Social Security. “Honestly speaking, such assumptions are not logically possible,” Krugman said.