Fresno’s rush hour fatality rate is 20.5% above the national average

Key takeaways

• Fresno ranks No. 27 out of 100 major U.S. cities for rush hour driving fatalities, posting a rate of 2.46 per 100,000 residents, 1.2 times the national average of 2.04.
• Fresno is one of four California cities in the top 30, joining Bakersfield (No. 15), Riverside (No. 22), and Sacramento (No. 24). All four are inland cities, while California’s coastal metros rank significantly lower.
• More than three-quarters of Fresno’s rush hour deaths (77.8%) occur during the evening commute between 5:00 and 8:00 PM, though total fatalities declined 28.6% from 2020 to 2023.

Data source: NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)

In Fresno, the drive home from work is a ritual shared by hundreds of thousands of residents every weekday. Cars merge onto CA-99 and CA-41, headlights flicker on as the sun drops behind the Coast Range and the San Joaquin Valley settles into dusk, and the same familiar intersections fill with the same familiar traffic. For most, it is a forgettable stretch of the day. But for a troubling number of families in this city, that ordinary commute has become the setting for tragedy.

The study, conducted by Blakeley Law Firm, analyzed fatal crash records from the NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) for 2020 through 2023, which were used to identify crashes occurring during rush hours (7:00 AM to 10:00 AM and 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM) across the 100 most populous U.S. cities. Cities are ranked by average annual rush hour fatal crashes per 100,000 residents.

Fresno, California: Rush hour risk profile

U.S. cities where rush hour driving is most deadly

Insight: Fresno is one of four California cities in the top 30, and notably, all four, Bakersfield (No. 15), Riverside (No. 22), Sacramento (No. 24), and Fresno (No. 27), are inland cities. 

California vs. bordering states: Rush hour fatality rate comparison

Insight: California’s combined rush hour fatality rate of 1.56 per 100,000 sits in the middle of its bordering states, trailing Arizona (3.03) by a wide margin while narrowly edging Oregon (1.54). Fresno’s individual rate of 2.46 is notably higher than the state’s combined figure, nearly 1.6 times California’s overall rate. 

Fresno vs. the 10 safest U.S. cities for rush hour driving

Insight: The intra-California divide is again on display: Irvine, ranked 99th nationally, posts a rate of just 0.47, more than five times lower than Fresno’s 2.46. The two cities sit in the same state but occupy vastly different positions on the national risk spectrum.

Methodology

This analysis used fatal crash records from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), accessed via cdan.dot.gov/query, covering calendar years 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The study examined the 100 most populous incorporated U.S. cities based on 2025 population estimates. Fatal crashes were classified as rush hour if they occurred between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM (morning rush) or between 5:00 PM and 8:00 PM (evening rush). For each city, rush hour fatal crashes were totaled per year and then averaged across the four years to produce the average annual rush hour fatal crash count. The primary ranking metric, the rate per 100,000 residents, was calculated as (average annual rush hour fatal crashes divided by city population) multiplied by 100,000, normalizing for population size to enable fair comparison across cities of varying scale. Morning and evening crashes were also tallied separately to allow AM versus PM analysis. The FARS database records only crashes involving at least one fatality within 30 days and does not include non-fatal injury crashes. Population figures are based on 2025 estimates and may not precisely match the population during each crash year.

Data sources

• National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS): https://cdan.dot.gov/query
• Research Dataset: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Wcsn7r6NBHTYeJTQTwXjGzye8M9F7pVKZcoH37HY6I/edit?gid=0#gid=0
• Study by: https://www.floridainjuryadvocate.com/

About Blakeley Law Firm

Blakeley Law Firm is a Florida-based personal injury practice representing victims of motor vehicle accidents and wrongful death. The firm focuses exclusively on personal injury litigation, advocating for individuals and families affected by negligent driving across the state of Florida.